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FlyingClimate

Model the CO2 and non-CO2 effects like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation's total warming footprint.
https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate

Category: Emissions
Sub Category: Emission Observation and Modeling

Last synced: about 20 hours ago
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What goes up must come down again.

README.md

Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming

DOI

Supplementary data and scripts for

M Klöwer, MR Allen, DS Lee, SR Proud, L Gallagher and A Skowron, 2021.
Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming,
Environmental Research Letters, accepted. Preprint 10.1002/essoar.10507359.1

Abstract

Growth in aviation contributes more to global warming than is generally appreciated because
of the mix of climate pollutants it generates. Here, we model the CO2 and non-CO2 effects
like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation’s total warming footprint.
Aviation contributed approximately 4% to observed human-induced global warming to date, despite
being responsible for only 2.4% of global annual emissions of CO2. Aviation is projected to cause
a total of about 0.1˚C of warming by 2050, half of it to date and the other half over the next
three decades, should aviation’s pre-COVID growth resume. The industry would then contribute a
6-17% share to the remaining 0.3-0.8˚C to not exceed 1.5-2˚C of global warming. Under this scenario,
the reduction due to COVID-19 to date is small and is projected to only delay aviation’s warming
contribution by about 5 years. But the leveraging impact of growth also represents an opportunity:
Aviation’s contribution to further warming would be immediately halted by either a sustained annual
2.5% decrease in air traffic under the existing fuel mix, or a transition to a 90% carbon-neutral
fuel mix by 2050.


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Last synced: 6 days ago

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Avg Commits per committer: 14.333
Development Distribution Score (DDS): 0.14

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Name Email Commits
Milan K m****r@g****e 37
simonrp84 s****d@p****k 4
fizzydunlop 7****p 2

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Last synced: 2 days ago

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Total pull requests: 22
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Average comments per issue: 0
Average comments per pull request: 0.18
Merged pull request: 21
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  • milankl (19)
  • simonrp84 (2)
  • fizzydunlop (1)

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